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Signal Evaluation

This section groups the documents that explain how AI, signal interpretation, decision support, and replay validation fit together on the current branch.

Core artifacts

Integrated flow

  1. live feeds and structured services create a current snapshot
  2. AI, event resolution, and graph layers build evidence-grounded context
  3. decision-support logic maps signals into structured candidates
  4. replay and historical validation test whether those candidates are coherent
  5. validation results refine evidence and admission quality over time

Public mock workbench

The public docs include a click-through mock replay workbench. It is not connected to private feeds, but it mirrors the product structure.

  • point-in-time datasets
  • replay and scenario comparison
  • operator decision posture
  • hot / warm / cold storage lifecycle

Mock Replay Studio

Scenario and backtest workbench

This public demo uses synthetic point-in-time data shaped like the real replay stack. You can switch datasets, compare scenarios, and inspect how storage, evaluation, and operator posture move together.

mock datahistorical replayscenario console

Scenario

Middle East energy shock

Escalation lifts oil and shipping stress while safe-haven positioning turns defensive.

Defensive bias
Frames184
Idea cards7
Hit rate63%
CAGR+11.8%

Replay curve

ACLED · conflict events · 91% coverage
2025-10 -> 2026-03-6.4%

Input datasets

ACLED Middle EastACLED

conflict events · 91% coverage

Conflict and protest events anchor the regime shift signal.

GDELT chokepoint pulseGDELT

news / document stream · 78% coverage

News burst intensity confirms narrative acceleration around shipping routes.

Oil and hedge basketYahoo / FRED

price series · 96% coverage

USO, XLE, GLD, and TLT provide tradable exit points for the replay.

Decision posture

USO / XLE defensive carryWatch / deploy small

High conviction only when shipping stress and crude momentum confirm together.

GLD / TLT hedge sleeveDeploy

Macro overlay prioritizes capital protection over fresh cyclic exposure.

Scenario timeline

T-72hConflict burst enters hot cache

ACLED and news spikes land in Redis and feed the current snapshot.

T-24hReplay frame enriched

Transmission edges and hedge bias are recorded in the replay frame.

T+48hForward return closes

Max-hold fallback closes the position if no earlier clean exit appears.

Data lifecycle

HotRedis

Live conflict/news payloads stay in Redis with short TTL and schema checks.

WarmPostgreSQL

Replay frames and run summaries persist into PostgreSQL for operator review.

ColdParquet / R2

Parquet snapshots archive the scenario window for later point-in-time reproduction.

Current limits

  • some probabilistic layers remain practical approximations
  • replay quality depends on point-in-time data completeness
  • the main branch is not a full autonomous trading stack

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Code licensed under AGPL-3.0-only. Public docs and media follow separate content policies.