Signal Evaluation

このセクションは、現在のブランチで AI、シグナル解釈、判断支援、リプレイ検証がどう結び付いているかを説明する文書をまとめます。

Core artifacts

Integrated flow

live feeds and structured services create a current snapshot
AI, event resolution, and graph layers build evidence-grounded context
判断支援ロジックがシグナルを候補に変換する
リプレイと履歴検証がその候補の妥当性を確認する
検証結果が証拠品質と admission 品質を補正する

Public mock workbench

The public docs include a click-through mock replay workbench. It is not connected to private feeds, but it mirrors the product structure.

point-in-time datasets
replay and scenario comparison
operator decision posture
hot / warm / cold storage lifecycle

Mock Replay Studio

シナリオ・バックテスト workbench

この公開デモは実運用の replay stack に近い合成 point-in-time データを使います。データセットを切り替え、シナリオを比較し、保存層と評価結果がどう連動するかを確認できます。

mock datahistorical replayscenario console

Scenario

Middle East energy shock

Escalation lifts oil and shipping stress while safe-haven positioning turns defensive.

Defensive bias

Frames184

Ideas7

Hit rate63%

CAGR+11.8%

Replay curve

ACLED · conflict events · 91% coverage

2025-10 -> 2026-03-6.4%

Input datasets

ACLED Middle EastACLED

conflict events · 91% coverage

Conflict and protest events anchor the regime shift signal.

GDELT chokepoint pulseGDELT

news / document stream · 78% coverage

News burst intensity confirms narrative acceleration around shipping routes.

Oil and hedge basketYahoo / FRED

price series · 96% coverage

USO, XLE, GLD, and TLT provide tradable exit points for the replay.

Decision posture

USO / XLE defensive carryWatch / deploy small

High conviction only when shipping stress and crude momentum confirm together.

GLD / TLT hedge sleeveDeploy

Macro overlay prioritizes capital protection over fresh cyclic exposure.

Scenario timeline

T-72hConflict burst enters hot cache

ACLED and news spikes land in Redis and feed the current snapshot.

T-24hReplay frame enriched

Transmission edges and hedge bias are recorded in the replay frame.

T+48hForward return closes

Max-hold fallback closes the position if no earlier clean exit appears.

Data lifecycle

HotRedis

Live conflict/news payloads stay in Redis with short TTL and schema checks.

WarmPostgreSQL

Replay frames and run summaries persist into PostgreSQL for operator review.

ColdParquet / R2

Parquet snapshots archive the scenario window for later point-in-time reproduction.

Current limits

いくつかの確率レイヤーはまだ実用的近似です
リプレイ品質は point-in-time データの完全性に依存します
現在の main ブランチは完全自動売買スタックではありません

Signal Evaluation ​

Core artifacts ​

Integrated flow ​

Public mock workbench ​